Forecast of The Price of Milk Paid to Producers in the departments of Magdalena, Córdoba and La Guajira: An Empirical Study Based on the Box-Jenkins Methodology

Abstract

Due to the changing nature of the prices of agricultural products, such as dairy products, the Colombian dairy sector is an industry that experiences constant fluctuations of a seasonal and often cyclical nature, which makes it crucial for the actors involved in this productive activity. know how these prices behave in the present and soon, to determine actions that impact on improving productivity and therefore competitiveness. Therefore, the objective of the research is to predict the total price per liter of milk paid to producers in the departments of Magdalena, Córdoba and La Guajira in the Colombian Caribbean, through the Box-Jenkins methodology, with the aim of take the respective measures, based on true and updated information. The data used in this study were obtained from the portal of the Milk Price Monitoring Unit (USP) system belonging to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) from January 2008 to January 2023. The empirical results revealed that the models SARIMA, SARIMA and ARIMA (0,1,0) were chosen as the most appropriate to offer coherent results of the value of future predictions of the price per liter of milk paid to producers, suppliers of milk to the food sector in general, such as the production of coastal cheese. The results indicate that prices in these three departments present an increasing trend in the months of 2023.