Development of a Formula for Calculating the Probability of the Spread of African Swine Fever

Anatolij Kovalenko; Jana Mojžišová; Vasil Koziy; Nataliia Kozii; Boris Vojtek; Anna Ondrejková; Marián Prokeš; Monika Drážovská

doi:10.61707/v7b1v496

Authors

Anatolij Kovalenko University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice, Department of Epizootiology, Parasitology and Protection of One Health, Komenského 73, 041 81 Košice, Slovak Republic
Jana Mojžišová University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice, Department of Epizootiology, Parasitology and Protection of One Health, Komenského 73, 041 81 Košice, Slovak Republic
Vasil Koziy Bila Tserkva National Agrarian University, School of Veterinary Medicine, 09100, Bila Tserkva, Kyyiv region, Ukraine
Nataliia Kozii Bila Tserkva National Agrarian University, School of Veterinary Medicine, 09100, Bila Tserkva, Kyyiv region, Ukraine
Boris Vojtek University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice, Department of Epizootiology, Parasitology and Protection of One Health, Komenského 73, 041 81 Košice, Slovak Republic
Anna Ondrejková University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice, Department of Epizootiology, Parasitology and Protection of One Health, Komenského 73, 041 81 Košice, Slovak Republic
Marián Prokeš University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice, Department of Epizootiology, Parasitology and Protection of One Health, Komenského 73, 041 81 Košice, Slovak Republic
Monika Drážovská University of Veterinary Medicine and Pharmacy in Košice, Department of Epizootiology, Parasitology and Protection of One Health, Komenského 73, 041 81 Košice, Slovak Republic

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61707/v7b1v496

Keywords:

Epizootiology, African Swine Fever, Control Epizootic Situation, Formula Spread of ASF

Abstract

Robust epidemiological knowledge and predictive modelling tools are needed to address challenging objectives forecasting epidemics. Often, multiple modelling approaches can be used during an epidemic to support effective decision making in a timely manner. A formula has been developed for calculating the probability of spreading african swine fever from infected animals of a threatened pig farm to other farms. The formula allows you to calculate the probability of an outbreak of infection for pigs of each of the pig farms located in the analyzed area. This takes into account the possible ways of spreading the pathogen in the presence of mechanisms and factors of transmission of african swine fever in real time.